John Levine says:
That was oddly shortsighted of IBM. Was it 16 bits is
enough for
anything you'd do on your desktop, or 32 bits is too close to
competing with our big machines?
Compaq got its Deskpro 386 out by late 1986. IBM didn't see the urgency and released
the PS/2 Model 80 in June 1987. Not just IBM; HP, for example, in 1987 was still saying
publicly that it was evaluating when and how to release its own 386 system.
Compaq's move panicked smaller competitors who didn't need to preserve their
dignity and knew what the computer meant, with many showing hastily built prototypes at
November 1986 Comdex.
While Microsoft did help Compaq while designing Deskpro 386, and Gates attended the
computer's announcement, I don't think it affected its plans for Xenix and OS/2.
The announcement did establish Compaq as arguably the standard setter in IBM's place
by 1990, or more accurately proved that IBM was no longer the standard setter. Had Dell
been the first out with a 386 box that might have affected its plans for Dell Unix, but
Compaq never had its own operating system until the DEC acquisition.