I think development environments will follow the people onto their preferred platforms, and will change or adapt as necessary. So the kind of computing we are used to, with a "computer", may become more and more marginalized. Business will go where the numbers are, and what we think of as mainstream will become "retro" or "vintage". Most of my acquaintances who are 20 or 30 years younger than me, or my now-grown children, already think using a "computer" is kind of a "boomer" thing.

What % of people running Chromebooks, Android or IOS
do any real programming on it? Even for laptops and
desktops that % is quite low. Most people run just a
few apps.

So what.  How many people fix their own cars, TVs, etc.